■ Dwaipayan
The 40-member Mizoram
State Assembly
elections, as in four other
States, are being held
today. All inquisitive eyes must
now be concentrated on Mizoram
nestling in the long 630-mile sensitive
zone bordering Bangladesh
and Myanmar, for two fundamental
reasons. One, Mizoram is incidentally
the last citadel of the ruling
Congress in the North-eastern
region, and, the other is the
electoral fortune of the BJP that
largely hinges on its ability to
make the Christian-dominated
State Congress-mukt, as the saffron
brigade has already done
though in alliance with its likeminded
parties in Nagaland where
in the last February Assembly
polls, the Congress drew a blank.
Meghalaya and Nagaland, as one
is aware of, are both Christiandominated
States. In spite of it,
what the BJP did in these two
States during their last February
Assembly elections was just a
miracle. It made inroads into the
vote banks of the Congress in particular,
roped in influential leaders
and ensured its easy access to
both the NPP-led multi-party government
in Meghalaya with a
mere two seats and the Rio-led
NDPP establishment in Nagaland
with 12 seats in its kitty.
Emboldened with huge success
in playing the king and the kingmaker
in the remaining six States
in the region, the Hindutva leaders
are palpably determined to
oust the two-term serving Lal
Thanhawla-led Congress Government
in Mizoram from power.
This has had its expression in more ways than one. One is the
party senior leaders’ recent assertion
that they would leave no
stone unturned to unseat the ruling
Congress in the State “to
paint the North-east with the saffron
colour”.
Second, this time the party has
fielded 39 as against 17 candidates
in the 2013 Assembly polls. And,
finally, in order to be sure of its
succeeding in its strategy
to either form a next
government on its own
or through a post-poll alliance
in the event of a
fractured mandate, the
BJP national honchos like
the star campaigner
Prime Minister Narendra
Modi came to the
State on November 22
last and campaigned for
the party. Earlier, its
president Amit Shah visited
Mizoram and addressed
three mammoth
poll rallies there. So if the
Congress suffers reverses,
there will be an end
to its prolonged political
hegemony in the State
politics. On the other
hand, if the BJP notches
up success, it will emerge as a
strong national entity in the region.
But, will it succeed in its strategy?
Credibility or popularity is what
is considered as the asset of a political
party. But, the Congress’s
popularity is now on the wane due
to several reasons. One is the recent
resignation of as many as five
senior party legislators following
difference of opinions with their
party leadership on various crucial issues. The prominent leaders, R
Lalzirliana and L Sailo resigned
from the Congress party for the
Lal Thanawla-led State Government’s
failure to make functional
three districts. These two leaders
joined the MNF. BD Chakma and
Wiphei joined the BJP, while another
party leader W Khiangte will
contest as an independent. Second,
the ruling party’s alleged failure
to prohibit alcohol consumption.
As a news report suggests, in recent years, many young people
died due to liquor consumption.
Third, the poor shape of basic infrastructure
such as roads, etc.
Last but not the least, the alleged
corruption at almost all levels of
the administration.
All these goings-on have diluted
the image of the ruling party in
large measure, but it may not affect
its prospects much because of
some reasons favouring it. One
reason is Mizoram itself. Having
been a predominantly Christian
State with 85% or more of its population
being Christian, it has traditionally
been a bastion of both the
Congress and the MNF.
The other reason is that this
time the Congress dropped eight
sitting MLAs and brought in 12 new
entrants, 33% of whom being below
40 years of age, the youngest
debutant Lalhmachhuana is only
37 years. If viewed from proper
perspective, the Congress
can be expected to
emerge as the largest
party and form a coalition
government with the
support of patent ethnic
political entities like the
MNF, ZPM, Zoram Thar,
a new outfit, and PRISM.
Reverting to the BJP,
it, like the Congress and
the MNF, is contesting
the polls separately. The
party stands a chance of
at least being a minor
partner of any non-Congress
multi-party government
under MNF in
the event of a hung Assembly,
if it fails to garner
even a razor-thin
majority. Winning half a
dozen or more seats this
time for the purpose is possible on
its part if the BJP leaders manage
few seats in the Bru-dominated
Assembly segments in Mizoram.
NEDA chairman Himanta Biswa
Sarma has gone to their relief
camps in Tripura on November 18
last and tried to convince them.
The MNF led by Zoramthangaa has
been a potent force as the Congress.
As such, the State has witnessed
power changing between
the Congress and the MNF ever
since Mizoram became a fullfledged
State. In terms of vote
share, the difference between the
two parties is small. For example,
in 2008 and 2013 Assembly polls,
MNF polled 31% and 29% vote
shares respectively against the
Congress’s 39% and 45% vote
shares respectively during the corresponding
years. This time, the
regional party as a part of their campaign
has boosted its electoral prospects
with its promises to implement
the much-talked-about National
Register of Citizens (NRC)
to detect and deport the illegal immigrants
in the State, and prohibit
alcohol consumption. As the regional
party still has enough of clout
among the Christian voters, it is
possible that the MNF can affect
the poll strategy of the saffron party.
If the regional party fails to garner
the magic number on its own,
even then it will not be any surprise
if it forms a rainbow-type
government with the support of
other regional parties like NPP, the
ruling party in Meghalaya, a constituent
of the BJP-led NEDA as
MNF is, ZPM, PRISM and even
the Congress.
Indeed, in the defining moment,
the new entrants in Mizoram polls
can boost their own prospects of
playing lead in forming a coalition
government. ZPM, a powerful
combine made up of seven ethnic
parties, is contesting 39 seats. The
new entrant PRISM, converted
from an anti-corruption watchdog
into a political outfit in 2017, is also
a force to reckon with. Both these
parties can engineer the division of
the Christian votes between the
Congress, MNF and BJP, and
brighten their prospects.
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